Think about this as the polls show this race is not what most of us thought it would be, especially with Hillary totally on-board.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109219/Gallup -Daily-Race-Tied-44.aspx
Full disclosure:
http://craigfarmer.blogspot.com/2008/07/ 2008-election-swing-state-odds.html
I would bet my money on:
Obama 54
McCain 41
others 5
electoral college:
Obama 306 McCain 232
but....
a contrary point:
Obama has never won a big election and maybe he's like the New England Patriots poised to lose for the first time in the biggest possible way.
As you'll see below, if Obama had won in California, Penn., Tex and Ohio, had an upset in West Virginia or Kentucky, then this would be a moot point.
Think about it:
*state level elections don't count (sorry)
*Senate Race--unbelievable fortune where all viable candidates withdrew or were hit by scandal.
*Presidential Primary:
1. Iowa was a caucus where people got to vote in public.
In a multi-candiate field:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari
es/results/state/#val=IA
62% percent chose someone other than Obama
38% chose Obama
Included in that 38% were "second choicers" many of whom truly believed (rightly I think) that if Hillary won Iowa it would have been over.
So Obama "won" by getting his base vote + electoral dynamics where everyone's goal was to keep the race going, Anybody But Clinton.
2. New Hampshire --- lost by 2 points -- 1st chance to knock out Clinton
3. South Carolina --Obama wins big BUT about half the voters being black- went 4 - 1 for Obama, while Obama, Edwards and Clinton split white vote.
Again, another big advantage for obama. He was talking about everyone coming together, and moving beyond race as white voters did by splitting their votes, yet black voters chose the black guy. So I discount this one.
3. Super Tuesday ---lost every contested state especially California, Mass., and NJ except Missouri (won by 1 point -with big city vote) ---2nd chance to knock out Clinton
Racked up lead in delegates by OUT WORKING CLINTON IN CAUCUS STATES and having a BETTER CAMPAIGN TEAM-- for example got many more votes by competing in NY than Clinton who left Illinois alone
4. Ohio and Texas -- lost both 3rd chance to knock out Clinton
5. Pennsylvania - lost 4th chance to knock out Clinton
6. N.C. and Indiana -- won N.C. similar to S.C. by winning Black democrats 92% --overall 56 - 42 obma
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari
es/results/epolls/#NCDE
Whereas clinton barely won Indiana. People forgot to note that Indiana borders Illinois and actual shares Chicago t.v. stations.
Close loss in Indiana was considered a win for Obama, because of delegate math(?) and momemtum(?) and no way supers take this away from him now (?)
7. Won/Lost every state projected to afterwards many by big margins with the possible exception of Clinton winning South Dakota.
Obama is our nominee because:
1. Clinton picked Solis and Penn to run her campaign and they did a horrible job; while Obama picked a superior team. This is 20/20 hindsight, but no one seriously questions that if you switch the campaign staffs, you would switch the winner.
2. Caucus states where public voting, organizing, and limited time to participate benefitted the Obama team
3. Democratic sensibilities would not allow Clinton to attack Obama in a "normal" way without it having "racial" overtones and it being inappropriate. For instance when Howard Dean was attacked as risky and unqualified and unstable there wasn't anyone defending him except on the merits.
4. The Democratic party finally paid a debt to Black voters who regularly support dems with 90%+ support. This led to certain states like Md, Va., NC, SC, etc. being out of play, and also created an inevitablility for Obama because no one wanted to be the one who stopped him for obvious reasons.
All of this is to say, Obama has never had a straight up election, rolled up his sleeves, had a a fair fight and won.
Now, I don't expect this GE to be a fair fight.
I expect the media to continue to help our side out.
I expect there to be a massive black vote and liberal vote that will be unshakable. This allows obama to be as moderate/conservative as he wants and not risk a 3rd party defection.
but...
we shouldn't ignore the possibility that this could end in disaster. At some point the Rev. Wright's, the Ludacris', the Father Phleger, etc. could add up.
People might begin resenting the implied, "i knew america was still racist" implications if obama loses, and call the bluff.
I don't believe this, but then again, i thought obama would be out to a large lead right now.
Craig Farmer
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